Below is an excerpt from a weekly column called “A Scientific View” written by Hedge Plus owner Patrick Hayes. In this column dated January 13, 2025 Patrick talks about the need to adjust to changing market conditions and not get stuck on a thought or a target that prevents you from performing better.
Soybean ending stocks were cut to a more reasonable 380 million bushels. The rural community should be very happy.
Instead, I heard a lot of emotion and mostly fear on Friday. Why is that? Sometimes good news is just too hard to accept right away and then fear takes over. The reality is that 2024 corn and soybean production will not be changed until the USDA next reviews the 2024 production estimates in September, so this news will stick.
Steve (from our staff) asked me what we do now that corn hit $4.70 futures price, our past target to sell. I told him nothing! 2024 corn ending stocks are now 400 million bushels less than 40 days ago. Why would we have the same targets with such a dramatic change in fundamentals?
Being a good marketer has nothing to do with the ability to target prices and everything to do with being able to adjust to changing conditions.
The new fundamentals now give us an excellent opportunity to see a $5 in front of corn futures with bean futures seeing $11. Truly great news.
I can promise you that between today’s price and the seasonal high there will be changes that need to be considered. That is our job to stay on top of things and make needed adjustments. For now, smile you will get a better price for your hard work.