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Corn basis at the Gulf firmed amid optimism about export prospects ahead of US-China talks and firming barge rates. Midwest elevator and processor bids were mostly steady to higher supported by a lack of farmer sales as planting season nears
 
The international market has the U.S. corn price rising $0.09/MT, while Argentina's increased $1.28/MT. U.S. soybeans jumped by $5.06/MT, with Brazil's alson increased $3.58/MT. U.S. SRW wheat fell by $6.53/MT and the Black Sea's price remained unchanged
 
Scattered showers are expected to relieve U.S. HRW wheat dryness next week in the east and south. Argentina dryness to speed harvest while Brazil sees alternating rain and sun with Safrinha subsoil still short. Dryness in East Australia to aid harvest while the south needs rain
 
Argentina's 2025/26 corn harvest should reach a record 67 million metric tons according to the Rosario grains exchange, raising its estimate from a prior 62 million tons thanks to farmers planting more fields with the crop than originally expected - Reuters
 
The USDA has reported a private export sale of 136,000 metric tons (5.3 million bushels) of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025/2026 marketing year
 
At the pause...
 
Corn and beans are are following crude higher as the cease fire with Iran remains in question. Growing dryness in the Southern Plains is supporting gains in wheat
 
May CORN up 2¾ cents at $4.50
May SOYBEANS up 5 cents at $11.67
May WHEAT up 8 cents at $5.88¼
 
U.S. drought conditions improved in the Midwest and Northeast due to light-to-moderate rainfall while dry and warm conditions along with record-low snowpack worsened drought across West, Plains, South and Southeast. D2-D4 covers 34.68% of U.S., up from 29.51% last week
 
The WASDE and crop production updates are expected to show ample supplies amid early planting, while final Q4 GDP and February PCE data could indicate measured growth and steady consumer strength which support demand without sparking volatility to add support for grain markets
 

Lingering global tightness from fertilizer export issues out of Russia remains supportive longer term, while demand indicators set to be released this morning will be watched for signs of steady export pace. Technically oversold conditions may allow for a modest rebound attempt if today’s data proves friendly

Wheat Sentiment: 5/10 Neutral

Wheat is staging a modest overnight recovery following declines due to rain forecasts for the southern Plains. Recent South Korean purchases of U.S. milling wheat provide some demand support while Russian fertilizer restrictions remain a factor

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