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Ethanol production dipped this past week to 318 million gallons from 327 million gallons the prior week. That total landed on the low end of industry expectations. The 15.5 million bushels used per day remained above the 14.9 mb needed daily to reach the USDA's forecast

4.4 million bushels of soybeans to the great unknown...

"120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year"

5.1 million bushels of corn to the great unknown...

"130,320 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year"

 

Important to note that all 3 of these are below where prices are now. And of these 3 commodities only the corn price has been trending in an upward direction on these USDA projections. Much of that due no doubt to the fact that the current near contract is 50 cents higher

It all adds up to a fairly neutral S&D report from the USDA yesterday. Didn't provide the boost to drive higher over recent thresholds but set a pretty firm floor. Despite the cuts to South American production and world stocks, bulls wanted to see cuts to U.S. inventories

You wouldn't know it from the initial market reaction but the USDA lowered corn production for both Argentina and Brazil, and also dropped soybean production for Argentina while leaving Brazil's soybeans unchanged

The USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged for corn and soybeans, while lowering wheat carryout slightly to 794 million bushels...

World ending stocks lowered across the board for corn, beans, and wheat from January's estimates to those released today by the USDA...

The confirmation hearing for U.S. Trade Representative Greer helped calm concerns of a heated trade war and further cemented many of the things we've been predicting. Diversification of trade partners, small asks of Mexico and Canada, and a more broad deployment of small tariffs

No surprises on this week's export sales report though soybean sales were very near the bottom of the range of estimates. Increases via Mexico for corn and wheat and from China for soybeans were what saved the day

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